the kyrgyz fallout

With Akayev resigning, life in Kyrgyzstan seems to have returned to normal for most. I wonder how much difference the recent changes will really make. There may be some reduction in government corruption, but it will still exist. The country doesn't really have any natural resources, except maybe clean water. A year from now, the people will still be poor and unemployed. Sometimes the people focus too much of their attention on the government rather than themselves. After the velvet revolution in Georgia, people expected everything to miraculously get better. It's over a year later and the same problems still seem plague the country.

Part of the problem is that people want something for nothing. They don't really want to work to make things better. They are opportunists. When authoritarian leaders like Akayev are removed from power, there is no one to keep the opportunists in check. This was evident in the nights following his departure when Bishkek was looted. Even with the new government up and running, the opportunists haven't stopped. The land grab currently going on in the outskirts of Bishkek is a perfect example. The opportunists are serving to further destabilize and already unstable situation.

Just how stable the new government is in Kyrgyzstan is anyone's guess. As Kyrgyzstan faces its post-Akayev future, some rifts are already emerging. The two main players now in Kyrgyz politics are interim President Kurmanbek Bakiev and former political prisoner Felix Kulov. Bakiev is from the poorer south and lead the demonstrations that toppled Akayev. Kulov is from Bishkek, the country's economic and political center. He spent the past four years in prison on charges that many believe were politically motivated. His time in prison may cause problems should he run for President (and many believe he will). Both men enjoy popular support in their respected region, but are seen as becoming increasingly competitive with each other. The prospect of a civil war is what everyone fears most.

Akayev has accused American organizations of helping to remove him from office. The fallout from this statement is already being seen in Uzbekistan. Ferghana.ru has an interesting, if somewhat unfocused, article about how Uzbek authorities are getting rid of organizations that they think are trying to instigate revolution. What is good about the article is that is discusses some of the key differences between Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan. Another interesting point the article makes is when it calls the president's daughter 'the worst irritant'. The woman is a constant topic of conversation here and I have never heard her mentioned in a good way. The people know how much of the country she controls and are less than thrilled about it.

The Kyrgyz revolution has definitely had an impact on the Uzbek part of the Ferghana Valley. Opposition groups may be inspired, but the common person is finding life just keeps getting harder. With the Kyrgyz-Uzbek border essentially closed, trade between the countries is now next to nothing. Prices are on the rise as the cheap Chinese made goods that made there way to Uzbekistan through Kyrgyzstan have dried up. People can no longer easily visit family members who happen to live on the opposite side of the border. Things are getting harder for people here, but it remains to be seen what they will do about it.